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Creators/Authors contains: "Riley, William J"

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  1. Middelburg, Jack (Ed.)
    Abstract. The mass conservation equation in the presence of boundary fluxes and chemical reactions from non-equilibrium thermodynamics is used to derive a modified dynamic energy budget (mDEB) model. Compared to the standard dynamic energy budget (sDEB) model (Kooijman, 2009), this modified formulation does not place the dilution effect in the mobilization kinetics of reserve biomass, and it maintains the partition principle for reserve mobilization dynamics for both linear and non-linear kinetics. Overall, the mDEB model shares most features with the sDEB model. However, for biological growth that requires multiple nutrients, the mDEB model is computationally much more efficient by not requiring numerical iterations for obtaining the specific growth rate. In an example of modeling the growth of Thalassiosira weissflogii in a nitrogen-limiting chemostat, the mDEB model was found to have almost the same accuracy as the sDEB model while requiring almost half of the computing time of the sDEB model. Since the sDEB model has been successfully applied in numerous studies, we believe that the mDEB model can help improve the modeling of biological growth and the associated ecosystem processes in various contexts. 
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    Free, publicly-accessible full text available January 1, 2026
  2. Abstract Understanding factors influencing carbon effluxes from soils to the atmosphere is important in a world experiencing climatic change. Two important uncertainties related to soil organic carbon (SOC) stock responses to a changing climate are (a) whether soil microbial communities acclimate or adapt to changes in soil temperature and (b) how to represent this process in SOC models. To further explore these issues, we included thermal adaptation of enzyme‐mediated processes in a mechanistic SOC model (ReSOM) using the macromolecular rate theory. Thermal adaptation is defined here to encompass all potential responses of soil microbes and microbial communities following a change in temperature. To assess the effects of thermal adaptation of enzyme‐mediated processes on simulated SOC losses, ReSOM was applied to data collected from a 13‐year soil warming experiment. Results show that a model omitting thermal adaptation of enzyme‐mediated processes substantially overestimates observed CO2effluxes during the initial years of soil warming. The bias against observed CO2effluxes was lower for models including thermal adaptation of enzyme‐mediated processes. In addition, for a simulated linear 3°C soil warming over 100 years, models including thermal adaptation of enzyme‐mediated processes simulated SOC losses of a factor of three smaller than models omitting this process. As thermal adaptation of microbial community characteristics is generally not included in models simulating feedback between the soil, biosphere and atmosphere, we encourage future studies to assess the potential impact that microbial adaptation has on soil carbon – climate feedback representations in models. 
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    Free, publicly-accessible full text available December 1, 2025
  3. ABSTRACT Photosynthesis is the largest flux of carbon between the atmosphere and Earth's surface and is driven by enzymes that require nitrogen, namely, ribulose‐1,5‐bisphosphate (RuBisCO). Thus, photosynthesis is a key link between the terrestrial carbon and nitrogen cycle, and the representation of this link is critical for coupled carbon‐nitrogen land surface models. Models and observations suggest that soil nitrogen availability can limit plant productivity increases under elevated CO2. Plants acclimate to elevated CO2by downregulating RuBisCO and thus nitrogen in leaves, but this acclimation response is not currently included in land surface models. Acclimation of photosynthesis to CO2can be simulated by the photosynthetic optimality theory in a way that matches observations. Here, we incorporated this theory into the land surface component of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (ELM). We simulated land surface carbon and nitrogen processes under future elevated CO2conditions to 2100 using the RCP8.5 high emission scenario. Our simulations showed that when photosynthetic acclimation is considered, photosynthesis increases under future conditions, but maximum RuBisCO carboxylation and thus photosynthetic nitrogen demand decline. We analyzed two simulations that differed as to whether the saved nitrogen could be used in other parts of the plant. The allocation of saved leaf nitrogen to other parts of the plant led to (1) a direct alleviation of plant nitrogen limitation through reduced leaf nitrogen requirements and (2) an indirect reduction in plant nitrogen limitation through an enhancement of root growth that led to increased plant nitrogen uptake. As a result, reallocation of saved leaf nitrogen increased ecosystem carbon stocks by 50.3% in 2100 as compared to a simulation without reallocation of saved leaf nitrogen. These results suggest that land surface models may overestimate future ecosystem nitrogen limitation if they do not incorporate leaf nitrogen savings resulting from photosynthetic acclimation to elevated CO2
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    Free, publicly-accessible full text available November 1, 2025
  4. Abstract To predict ecological responses at broad environmental scales, grass species are commonly grouped into two broad functional types based on photosynthetic pathway. However, closely related species may have distinctive anatomical and physiological attributes that influence ecological responses, beyond those related to photosynthetic pathway alone. Hyperspectral leaf reflectance can provide an integrated measure of covarying leaf traits that may result from phylogenetic trait conservatism and/or environmental conditions. Understanding whether spectra‐trait relationships are lineage specific or reflect environmental variation across sites is necessary for using hyperspectral reflectance to predict plant responses to environmental changes across spatial scales. We measured hyperspectral leaf reflectance (400–2400 nm) and 12 structural, biochemical, and physiological leaf traits from five grass‐dominated sites spanning the Great Plains of North America. We assessed if variation in leaf reflectance spectra among grass species is explained more by evolutionary lineage (as captured by tribes or subfamilies), photosynthetic pathway (C3or C4), or site differences. We then determined whether leaf spectra can be used to predict leaf traits within and across lineages. Our results using redundancy analysis ordination (RDA) show that grass tribe identity explained more variation in leaf spectra (adjustedR2 = 0.12) than photosynthetic pathway, which explained little variation in leaf spectra (adjustedR2 = 0.00). Furthermore, leaf reflectance from the same tribe across multiple sites was more similar than leaf reflectance from the same site across tribes (adjustedR2 = 0.12 and 0.08, respectively). Across all sites and species, trait predictions based on spectra ranged considerably in predictive accuracies (R2 = 0.65 to <0.01), butR2was >0.80 for certain lineages and sites. The relationship between Vcmax, a measure of photosynthetic capacity, and spectra was particularly promising. Chloridoideae, a lineage more common at drier sites, appears to have distinct spectra‐trait relationships compared with other lineages. Overall, our results show that evolutionary relatedness explains more variation in grass leaf spectra than photosynthetic pathway or site, but consideration of lineage‐ and site‐specific trait relationships is needed to interpret spectral variation across large environmental gradients. 
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    Free, publicly-accessible full text available April 1, 2026
  5. Abstract The dynamics of methane (CH4) cycling in high-latitude peatlands through different pathways of methanogenesis and methanotrophy are still poorly understood due to the spatiotemporal complexity of microbial activities and biogeochemical processes. Additionally, long-termin situmeasurements within soil columns are limited and associated with large uncertainties in microbial substrates (e.g. dissolved organic carbon, acetate, hydrogen). To better understand CH4cycling dynamics, we first applied an advanced biogeochemical model,ecosys, to explicitly simulate methanogenesis, methanotrophy, and CH4transport in a high-latitude fen (within the Stordalen Mire, northern Sweden). Next, to explore the vertical heterogeneity in CH4cycling, we applied the PCMCI/PCMCI+ causal detection framework with a bootstrap aggregation method to the modeling results, characterizing causal relationships among regulating factors (e.g. temperature, microbial biomass, soil substrate concentrations) through acetoclastic methanogenesis, hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis, and methanotrophy, across three depth intervals (0–10 cm, 10–20 cm, 20–30 cm). Our results indicate that temperature, microbial biomass, and methanogenesis and methanotrophy substrates exhibit significant vertical variations within the soil column. Soil temperature demonstrates strong causal relationships with both biomass and substrate concentrations at the shallower depth (0–10 cm), while these causal relationships decrease significantly at the deeper depth within the two methanogenesis pathways. In contrast, soil substrate concentrations show significantly greater causal relationships with depth, suggesting the substantial influence of substrates on CH4cycling. CH4production is found to peak in August, while CH4oxidation peaks predominantly in October, showing a lag response between production and oxidation. Overall, this research provides important insights into the causal mechanisms modulating CH4cycling across different depths, which will improve carbon cycling predictions, and guide the future field measurement strategies. 
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    Free, publicly-accessible full text available February 11, 2026
  6. Abstract Hyperspectral remote sensing has the potential to map numerous attributes of the Earth’s surface, including spatial patterns of biological diversity. Grasslands are one of the largest biomes on Earth. Accurate mapping of grassland biodiversity relies on spectral discrimination of endmembers of species or plant functional types. We focused on spectral separation of grass lineages that dominate global grassy biomes: Andropogoneae (C4), Chloridoideae (C4), and Pooideae (C3). We examined leaf reflectance spectra (350–2,500 nm) from 43 grass species representing these grass lineages from four representative grassland sites in the Great Plains region of North America. We assessed the utility of leaf reflectance data for classification of grass species into three major lineages and by collection site. Classifications had very high accuracy (94%) that were robust to site differences in species and environment. We also show an information loss using multispectral sensors, that is, classification accuracy of grass lineages using spectral bands provided by current multispectral satellites is much lower (accuracy of 85.2% and 61.3% using Sentinel 2 and Landsat 8 bands, respectively). Our results suggest that hyperspectral data have an exciting potential for mapping grass functional types as informed by phylogeny. Leaf‐level hyperspectral separability of grass lineages is consistent with the potential increase in biodiversity and functional information content from the next generation of satellite‐based spectrometers. 
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  7. Accurate representation of permafrost carbon emissions is crucial for climate projections, yet current Earth system models inadequately represent permafrost carbon. Sustained funding opportunities are needed from government and private sectors for prioritized model development. 
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  8. Abstract Quantifying the temperature sensitivity of methane (CH4) production is crucial for predicting how wetland ecosystems will respond to climate warming. Typically, the temperature sensitivity (often quantified as a Q10value) is derived from laboratory incubation studies and then used in biogeochemical models. However, studies report wide variation in incubation-inferred Q10values, with a large portion of this variation remaining unexplained. Here we applied observations in a thawing permafrost peatland (Stordalen Mire) and a well-tested process-rich model (ecosys) to interpret incubation observations and investigate controls on inferred CH4production temperature sensitivity. We developed a field-storage-incubation modeling approach to mimic the full incubation sequence, including field sampling at a particular time in the growing season, refrigerated storage, and laboratory incubation, followed by model evaluation. We found that CH4production rates during incubation are regulated by substrate availability and active microbial biomass of key microbial functional groups, which are affected by soil storage duration and temperature. Seasonal variation in substrate availability and active microbial biomass of key microbial functional groups led to strong time-of-sampling impacts on CH4production. CH4production is higher with less perturbation post-sampling, i.e. shorter storage duration and lower storage temperature. We found a wide range of inferred Q10values (1.2–3.5), which we attribute to incubation temperatures, incubation duration, storage duration, and sampling time. We also show that Q10values of CH4production are controlled by interacting biological, biochemical, and physical processes, which cause the inferred Q10values to differ substantially from those of the component processes. Terrestrial ecosystem models that use a constant Q10value to represent temperature responses may therefore predict biased soil carbon cycling under future climate scenarios. 
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  9. Abstract Soil organic matter decomposition and its interactions with climate depend on whether the organic matter is associated with soil minerals. However, data limitations have hindered global-scale analyses of mineral-associated and particulate soil organic carbon pools and their benchmarking in Earth system models used to estimate carbon cycle–climate feedbacks. Here we analyse observationally derived global estimates of soil carbon pools to quantify their relative proportions and compute their climatological temperature sensitivities as the decline in carbon with increasing temperature. We find that the climatological temperature sensitivity of particulate carbon is on average 28% higher than that of mineral-associated carbon, and up to 53% higher in cool climates. Moreover, the distribution of carbon between these underlying soil carbon pools drives the emergent climatological temperature sensitivity of bulk soil carbon stocks. However, global models vary widely in their predictions of soil carbon pool distributions. We show that the global proportion of model pools that are conceptually similar to mineral-protected carbon ranges from 16 to 85% across Earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and offline land models, with implications for bulk soil carbon ages and ecosystem responsiveness. To improve projections of carbon cycle–climate feedbacks, it is imperative to assess underlying soil carbon pools to accurately predict the distribution and vulnerability of soil carbon. 
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